A Trump Abroad

How will He Deal With the Unexpected?

And what if Donald Trump’s second term turns out to be very different from what he’s expecting it to be? What if the world doesn’t conform to his fantasies? Especially overseas, in venues he can’t quite control. There are early indications that Trump’s bluster may get results, like the sudden Mexican crackdown on fentanyl reported today. The Iranians seem willing to deal. The Canadians are bolstering their border security. Trump seems to believe that he can tame the world, but what if he can’t? He seems to believe that his administration will be a series of easy victories—shutting down the southern border, negotiating an end to foreign wars, rebuilding American industry through tariffs (not so easy), “owning” the idiot left. But what if his bluster turns out to be empty? And what if events in the world force his focus to be on something else entirely?

This has happened before. It happened to George W. Bush. He was expecting a placid run after the quiet 80s and 90s, peace and prosperity conferred by the end of the Cold War. There would be tax cuts made easy by Clinton’s budget surplus, compassionate conservatism, no tawdry personal drama. Which lasted about nine months, until September 11, when everything changed. His presidency turned out to be far different from anything he anticipated, culminating in the horrendous decision to go to war in Iraq—a decision neither he nor the American intelligence community were prepared to make—and a stock market crash precipitated by a Clinton era decision not to keep a close eye on Wall Street’s derivative-trading casino.

What if Trump is blindsided by history, too? It is certainly a possibility made more likely by his desire to put flunkies in key intelligence positions. He is likely to be flying blind.

A brief, but relevant diversion: Some of you are familiar with my podcast partner John Ellis’s daily substack News Items. All of you should be—I mean, right now; and you should be paid subscribers, of course. It is simply the best news digest out there. In recent weeks, I’ve been particularly impressed by the global stuff John has been aggregating—weird things like the belief among some North Korea-watchers that war is imminent on the peninsula. And a growing sense of Russian menace, like this item:

Russia’s ‘secret war’ with the West isn’t really secret. It’s happening all over the map. Taken in isolation, various “incidents” could just about be explained away as coincidences – freak accidents, one-off attacks, unfortunate infrastructure failures. For instance(s): The DHL cargo plane that crashed on Monday as it approached Vilnius airport. The recent bomb scares that have hobbled London, from Euston Square and Gatwick Airport to the US Embassy. The drones spotted circling near US Air Force bases in the UK. The explosion at a weapons manufacturing facility in Wales in April. The telecommunications cables severed in the Baltic Sea earlier this month. The many arson attacks, including on a Ukrainian-owned business in Leyton, East London, in March. The successful attempts to interfere with Czech rail operators. The ransomware attack on an NHS provider in June. The television satellites disrupted and damaged, causing changes to programming across Europe. The defector gunned down in Spain in February. The assassination attempt on the chief executive of a German arms manufacturer. Isolated is not what they were. Nor are the dozens of other worrying incidents that could be grouped with them. Taken together, the conclusion becomes unavoidable: that over the last 12 months, as the West has continued to support Ukraine’s war efforts, Russia has dramatically escalated its acts of sabotage across Europe and beyond, sowing a greater sense of instability on the continent than at any time since the Cold War. (Source: telegraph.co.uk)

Which leads to the biggest what-if of the early Trump Administration: What if Putin doesn’t want to compromise over Ukraine?

Trump clearly assumes that Putin will. He has said, "I will get it settled before I even become president.” Oh yeah? But what if Putin still wants to swallow Ukraine whole? What if Putin thinks Trump is a patsy, not a strongman? What if he wants to test the limits of what he might get away with in a second Trump term? These are not unlikely scenarios.

There are those who will argue that Trump will be tough. The first armaments sent to Ukraine after the initial Russian incursion were sent by Trump’s defense team. There are those who point out that Trump’s Ukraine point man General Keith Kellogg—currently visiting Ukraine—might not take a blatant Russian refusal to compromise quietly; certainly, a broad swath of Republicans in Congress won’t. If the “deal” Trump settles for is, Russia takes Ukraine, the President may not like the global perception that he is Putin’s lap dog. Or maybe he’ll make the Nixon-style mistake of trying to cajole Russia into an alliance against the Chinese. (They are Russia’s most proximate threat, especially in the loosely held vastlands of East Asia.) Global geo-strategy is a game for inspired experts, who live and breathe it the way Nixon and Kissinger did; Trump’s an amateur, at best.

The North Korea business is not unrelated. Dictator Kim Jung-un has already sent troops to Ukraine—in return for what? Russian support for a campaign against a suddenly wobbly South Korea? Or, perhaps, help with North Korea’s nuclear program? Trump has said he wants to pull the American troops from Korea. Really? Again, he will be tested—not just by Putin and Kim, but also—obviously—by the Chinese. There, things could really get out of hand, especially if a trade war escalates…or if the Chinese continue their aggressive naval actions against the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and their other Pacific neighbors. There are regional experts who are convinced that the Chinese will move on Taiwan in the next few years—I’m not, but I’m not an expert. In a Night Owls podcast earlier this year, Jane Perlez made it clear that China’s long tradition of non-aggression toward its neighbors had changed under Xi. If the Chinese economy goes south—a constant fear of the leadership, especially when it comes to the teetering real estate market—there will be the temptation to divert public attention to the Glories of Reunification (the level of xenophobic patriotism in China is off the charts).

And then, there’s the Middle East. Trump has demanded that Hamas release the hostages or there will be “hell to pay.” Okay, but what is he going to do? Pound the rubble in Gaza into pebbles? Send in American special forces? These are recipes for quagmire.

It could be Elon Musk started a process of quiet rapprochement with the Iranians, who must be feeling in awe of Israel’s power these days. Or it could be the reeling Syrians can be pried out of Iran’s orbit (as Biden has apparently been trying to do). Or it could all go bang.

I am not predicting anything here. Except that stuff will happen—stuff that no one foresees now. It almost always does. That is why you want the most prudent, sober people in the top national security positions. Neither Pete Hegseth nor Tulsi Gabbard can be counted among those. If Trump is lucky, the Senate will riff them. Trump had a pretty smooth ride when it came to international crises in his first term. The big surprise was Covid, and he didn’t do too well managing that one. Can he count on smooth sailing for the next four years? I doubt it.

Those who say Trump’s second term will be this or that—an American revival, an authoritarian slide—do not have the luxury of foresight. Trump’s second term may be something else entirely, something he can’t predict, something based a wrong reading of Putin, something that results from his bluster being taken seriously by a jittery foe. After all, a leader as self-consumed as Trump tends not to be very astute when evaluating others, unless they threaten him directly…and then he may well explode, react emotionally. Or cave. Let’s hope he doesn’t take us with him.

And in this holiday season, you might consider becoming one of the Sanity tribe or giving the Gift of Sanity to a family member or friend—at a discount.