President Biden’s State of the Union address was happy, feisty and fun. I don’t think I’ve ever used those words to describe a State of the Union before. Definitely not fun. That’s why I liked it...with a few caveats, of course, but that’s not the point here. We, as a nation, are in desperate need of a happiness jolt. We’ve become a sour lot. We are The Swamp and that is something new: Until the mid-1970s, a majority of Americans told pollsters that they thought next year would be better. It’s what made us different from most everyone else in the world. We were a nation of optimists. Now The State of Our Union is dire, dour, dark and depressing. Or, as the Wall Street Journal put it today:
If Biden is such a success, why aren’t Americans pleased?
Because Americans just aren’t pleased by much of anything any more. Such distemper used to be the near-exclusive province of the Left: America was racist, capitalist, oppressive, imperialist and banal. There was some truth to this, but not as much as The Left thought. Moderate liberals and conservatives—the old mainstream—were people who, by and large, believed America was a pretty terrific place. And next year was going to be better. Now, the old mainstream is a dry creekbed. Republicans imagine the country is falling apart, that white people are under siege (as Tucker Carlson bleats nightly), that we are well on our way, pace Donald Trump, to becoming a “shithole” country. There is, in truth, cause for concern about the future—there always is—but we remain the luckiest people in the history of the planet.
Hence, this newsletter…which, in some ways, will be a resumption of the columns I used to write for New York Magazine, Newsweek, the New Yorker and Time. My operating theory is that sanity and perspective have taken a back seat to the show-biz hugger-mugger that passes for “news” these days. I will try, in this small way, to respond to all the blather. Perspective I’ve got: more than 50 years of it, traveling the world, traipsing about the public square, making mistakes and learning from them. Sanity? You be the judge. My trajectory has been a steady march away from ideology toward a liberal conservatism, or vice versa. (That’s meant to be a joke: coming up with contradictory or stupid new labels—like radical moderate, reactionary progressive—is one of the perils of this work.) Within my operating theory, I believe that skepticism, which is the proper default position for those who would engage the world, has been supplanted by cynicism over the past 50 years. Skepticism acknowledges the possibility of good faith; cynicism doesn’t. Cynicism is what passes for insight among the mediocre (although, I’ll admit, I can get awfully cynical about poseurs, bloviators and, well, cynics).
I believe the natural tendency of the media is to overstate the case and I will try to counter that here. For example, the “news” of the past week, with the monumental exception of the Turkish earthquake. I would argue that we are in a pause—a caesura, as they say in music and poetry, a moment of anticipation, waiting for the next big shoe to drop. But nothing much is happening right now. Here are some examples:
—The Chinese Balloon. This occasioned all kinds of drastic hoo-hah from the usual suspects last week. But, why float a balloon over Montana when there are satellites that can read license plates from outer space? I mean, was Phileas Fogg on board? (THAT would be a story). Should we worry about it? Not so much. But it does hint at the greatest international challenge we now face: how to deal with China in the 21st century. Count me among those who believe that the coming Chinese collapse—demographic, environmental, intellectual, economic—will be more an issue for us than Chinese competition or adventurism (unless the latter is a consequence of the collapse). We are, however, tangled up with this massive, homogenous country—very much unlike us—for good or ill. So it was a good thing to shoot down the balloon and find out what it was carrying, if we didn’t already know (which we might well have). It saved face. When dealing with China, the concept of face never is far from the surface. It is always crucial in their dealings with us.
—The Memphis Police Murder. I’ll be writing a lot about race here, because I believe it is, and always has been, the most vexing issue facing the country….and also our greatest opportunity for transcendent historic success. But the conversation has become tired, and reflexive. Hence, the efforts of some black voices to pin the Memphis murder of Tyre Nichols on racism, even though it was black cops who perpetrated the crime. There are other problems with police culture that enabled the crime—and there is a need for context: police violence has been diminishing for decades (though there was a Covid uptick); murders by police officers are rare. More whites are killed than blacks (though more blacks that proportionate). I suspect this event, the disappointing staleness of the discourse, is a prelude to a big national argument about race—about affirmative action, and whether we can make legal distinctions according to race. The Supreme Court will have something to say about that soon. And there will be calls for “a real conversation about race.” Good luck with that. A “real” conversation can only happen if white people, especially liberals, are less patronizing toward blacks. African-Americans have been heroic and amazingly tolerant, given the brutality we’ve visited upon them. But they are, you know, sometimes wrong—especially facile academics like Ibram X. Kendi, who depend on white guilt to bully their arguments. We need to be able to disagree publicly if we’re going to have that ever-elusive “real” conversation; it is a predicate for mutual respect.
—The Debt Ceiling. Oh please. Enough of this, already. The Republicans always lose this argument. They will this time, too. Biden should call their bluff. Let them shut down the government, if they dare. The public always blames them when they do. The Republicans should focus on issues where they have stronger arguments, like immigration.
—The Coming Russian Offensive in Ukraine. 500,000 fresh troops? I’ll believe it when I see it. The Russians have had, over my lifetime, an inexhaustible capacity for brutality and evil…and even more so, now that they’re on the edge of becoming a failed state. Last time I was in Moscow, there were no pregnant women, or baby carriages, on the street; those demographics haven’t changed. The Russian language, a gorgeous monster, is made for exaggeration and fantasy. Ukraine is the latest example of Russian overreach and nearly as heinous as communism was. But here, too, we’re in a caesura—waiting to see what, if anything, Putin does next.
—Presidential Politics. Not much happening here, either. Last weekend’s ABC News/Washington Post poll had most Americans opposed to another Biden-Trump campaign. And yet, it seems unavoidable. The key word here is “seems.” Because something will happen to change the equation. It always does. These are two—take it from me—old men. The American public is too easily bored, especially with a bloodsport that has become the equivalent of a Reality TV program. I cannot tell you which alternatives to Trump and Biden will emerge, if any. It’s impossible to predict who’ll be plausible until you see the politicians on the stump or jousting with each other in debate. I do find Donald Trump’s charge today that Ron DeSantis “grooms” teenage girls hilarious. If DeSantis responds in any way, he’s not a very good politician.
I don’t like to make predictions, especially about politics. Journalists are pretty good explaining the past, okay when it comes to what’s happening right now…and miserable about what’s going to happen next. And yet, my former colleagues are continually asked to predict stuff, especially on television. Sometimes, you can’t resist. A couple of paragraphs back I predicted that the coming Supreme Court decision on affirmative action will occasion greater tension—at the very least, a heightened conversation—about race. It could be a major issue in 2024; it usually is. That seems a pretty safe bet to me. But it’s a prediction. So take it with a grain of silicon.
If I offer some perspective and provocationent here that you don’t find elsewhere, stick around. Subscribe below. It won’t cost a penny, at least for the first few months. Call it a special introductory offer. I will come to you several times a week. And I hope to emulate our President: I want this space to be happy, feisty and fun.
Like it. Fun! A conservative liberal on the beach in Hilton Head