Cartelogue

The Prescience of "The Coming Anarchy"

Thirty years ago, The Atlantic published a striking essay by Robert Kaplan called “The Coming Anarchy.” It posited—contra the euphoric “End of History” mood of the moment— that the world was going to hell, that the Cold War would be remembered as a golden age of stability, that governments in vast swatches of the Third World were falling into chaos, gang rule, the return of toxic tribalism. The result would be tides of refugees storming the civilized world.

The essay has always been lurking, somewhere in the back of my mind—sometimes more present, as after 9/11; sometimes less, especially during the Obama Administration. I’m feeling it full-bore now: the world is crashing down our gates at a moment when our “gates,” figuratively, have lost their tensile strength, our society has weakened and grown more chaotic. The Coming Anarchy was very much at the front of my mind when I saw this video of migrants storming our border wall on CNN yesterday. It was more a metaphor than a literal description of the state of play at the border—only 100 migrants were involved; they were quickly apprehended. But it looked worse.

And…

There seems a daily tide of chaos news. There are small things, like this piece about how the cartels have taken to fleecing American senior citizens who own vacation time shares. There are mid-level weirdnesses, like this piece about how right-wing “influencers” are exploiting an illegal immigrant trail in Panama for political effect. There are major disasters, like the situation in Haiti, where gangs have taken control and the most powerful gangster is a man called “Barbecue,” who aspires to creating a cartel board of directors to run the joint. And there is the continuing rot in Mexico, where the Lopez-Obredor government is being paid by narco-terrorists, who not only control the drug trade but also vast illegal immigration networks and, as seen in the time-share piece above, a plethora of other scams. Gangs—which are, in reality, nothing more than post-modern tribal structures—are threatening democracy around the globe.

Chaos is also creeping north of the border. Texas—and other Red states—seem intent on defying the federal government when it comes to imposing more punitive measures against the illegal immigrant tide. You know things are getting complicated when you have a moral choice between the right-wing nativist Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, and the aforementioned, cartel-bought Lopez Obredor, who waxed righteously about the Texas law: “It disrespects human rights. It’s a completely dehumanizing law. It’s anti-Christian, unjust. It violates precepts and norms of human coexistence.”

Jeez. The anarchy has spread to major cities in the north, where violent crime rates are down, but “broken windows” crimes—shoplifting, fare-jumping, vagrancy—are burgeoning. In New York, the attempt to control the legalization of marijuana has been a disaster: there are 85 legal dispensaries and 2000 illegal ones. There are daily fistfights at basketball games—March Madness, indeed. We just can’t seem to control ourselves.

Above all, there is the specter of Trump—illegal, anarchic, authoritarian. And increasingly plausible: he is the avatar of “government don’t mean nothin’ to me” America, a vast, viral human wound that sees the Feds as a fount of illegitimacy, the purveyor of nonsense language…and proposer of inconvenient rules, like an assault-weapons ban and electric car promotion—They’re coming for your gun racks AND your pickups! Trump is blatantly bringing back his own gangsters—people like Paul Manafort, Steve Bannon and the eternally vile Roger Stone—to wage the presidential campaign.

It might be argued that we’ve entered an Age of Aysmmetry, a tribal, nihilist reaction of hackers, terrorists, gangsters and anarchists to confront the forces of Globalization and Order. As we’ve learned on battlefields since 9/11, these gangsters are a difficult foe. It is a campaign that requires rigor, discipline, persistence and sometimes commensurate brutality, if civilization is to prevail.

I would argue this: the Biden Administration is in deep trouble because it is failing “The Coming Anarchy” test on almost every level. There isn’t much that can be done about Haiti; we’ve tried in the past and almost always failed. There isn’t much that can be done about the cartelization of Mexico, either; though the notion that a crook like Lopez-Obredor has “leverage” over Biden when it comes to immigration—he can control the numbers at the border—is mind-boggling.

Also mind-boggling: Biden has done nothing about this. He hasn’t declared a national security emergency, sending troops to shut down the border. He hasn’t called a temporary halt to refugee intake there. He has played into Trump’s hands on smaller things, like the promotion of electric cars, which are not a sure-thing technology (especially in the north). He keeps on forgiving loans to college students, who represent an advantaged minority of the public. He caved to the left, apologizing after he called an illegal immigrant murderer “illegal.” He acts as if academic ethnic-activists have either moral value or a real constituency, as if activism were more worthy than citizenship. He seems weak in the world. He declares war on the Houthi rebels—remember that?—but they’re still attacking ships in the Red Sea. Bibi Netanyahu takes advantage of him. Both Greg Abbott and Lopez Obredor push him around. He can’t get necessary aid to Ukraine.

I can, and have, defended the Biden presidency on substance; he has had unexpected bipartisan triumphs; he has been sane in the world; his rhetoric is reasonable. But when it comes to style—crucial in the post-modern media swamp—he has been a dismal failure. The world is probably not as out-of-control as it seems. The video of illegals storming the border throws outsized weight when it comes to “The Coming Anarchy.” But small things can loom large, if left unattended: It wouldn’t have taken much to keep Bagram Air Base open in perpetuity in Afghanistan, but it would have made the terrorist attack which killed 13 Americans at Kabul Airport far less likely—and it would have expedited the exodus of Afghans who truly deserve refugee status after they helped us in the war. (And there are reports of the resurgence of ISIS and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, which special operators, based at Bagram, might have addressed.)

Small things. The appearance of toughness and strength. Pushback against the perception of anarchy. Elections are determined by impressions. Good luck and good night.

ACLU

Speaking of anarchy, I’ve held the American Civil Liberties Union in minimal high regard ever since it sued to oppose the installation of metal detectors in the terrifying Chicago public housing projects thirty years ago. It has now embroiled itself in a transcendent ridiculousness by firing a Korean staffer for, in effect, free-range cantankerousness. Kate Oh never said anything racist or offensive, but she was a hard-ass employee, constantly criticizing her superiors, who happened to be black. So they dumped her. This is further evidence of the precious idiocy of the left. But then, Oh suing her employers for finding her offensive is offensive, too. Employers should be free to hire and fire who they want. The whole thing should be laughed out of court.