The Republican debate last night was interesting, but probably not consequential. I’ll have an evaluation below, but this was Donald Trump’s week. His joke/statement about being a dictator on Day One dwarfed the debate; it was not just consequential, but also revelatory—a classic Trump moment. As reported by The Washington Post:
“Under no circumstances — you are promising America tonight — you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?” Hannity asked Trump during the latter exchange.
“Except for Day One,” Trump quickly replied, prompting someone in the audience to yell out: “Yeah!”
“He’s going crazy!” Trump said as Hannity looked perplexed.
“Except for Day One. Meaning?” Hannity asked.
“I want to close the border, and I want to drill, drill, drill,” Trump said as the crowd cheered.
“That’s not retribution,” Hannity responded.
“We love this guy,” Trump said of Hannity. “He says: ‘You’re not gonna be a dictator, are ya?’ I say: ‘No, no, no — other than Day One.’”
Trump then doubled down on his promise to close the U.S.-Mexico border and expand oil drilling on his first day, adding: “After that, I’m not a dictator.”
Trump is a clever thug—more clever than his critics credit him for. He is working on at least three different levels here:
He’s joking. Trump’s response to the widespread media panic about a second term for Orange Jesus is to not take it seriously. He isn’t at all defensive. He never is. He understands that if he gives credence to the “dictator” meme, he gives power to the media and political establishment. In Trump World, they’re the past. He’s saying, look at these nutballs, I drive them crazy—I mean, to think we’d have a dictator in America!
He’s not joking. This is a wink-wink moment for his cult. It’s of a piece with his “Stand back and stand by” admonition to the Proud Boys, and his “go in peace and fight like hell” instructions to the Mall crowd on January 6. This is a brilliant rhetorical tactic he’s perfected over the years. He’s opening the door—hell, he’s announcing his intent—to pursue all sorts of authoritarian behavior. Censorship. Concentration camps. The evisceration of the Justice Department. The death penalty for Mark Milley. But he can’t really say that…except he already has: “I am your retribution.” Retribution is a big word, of a sort not usually included in the elementary Trump lexicon. It is carefully selected. It is, in fact, the entire purpose of his campaign. The message is: I’m going after anyone who opposes me. If I want to be a dictator, they can’t stop me. And I certainly won’t stop myself. And you’ll like it.
He’s selling. Notice the two issues he’s chosen for his dictatorship: immigration and inflation. These are Biden’s two greatest weaknesses, aside from his age. This is a message to the Republican establishment: I’m not as crazy as I sound. I’ve got a winning campaign strategy here. In fact, he has found the populist sweet spot. He’s to the left of Nikki Haley on entitlement reform and Ron DeSantis on abortion. The third pillar of his agenda will be China, home of fentanyl precursors and electric cars.
Trump has always been a brilliant demagogue. But he’s also proving to be a formidable politician. Sure, he’s a narcissistic psychopath and a proto-fascist—but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t know exactly what he’s doing. As Dick Cheney said recently, Trump’s the most dangerous man in American history. And it’s not going to be enough to cry “Mussolini” if there isn’t a supple, long-term strategy for taking him down. “Dictatorship” is a trope that will fade—it will become stale, as most tropes do, easily ridiculed by Trump—unless it is carefully fed. And I’m growing ever more fearful that the Democrats are incapable of responding to the threat. Three questions for them:
Why on earth are they blocking border security in the Senate? (Tough rules for asylum seekers are a detail of implementation well beyond the ken of most civilians—and securely in the realm of enforcement priorities, which can be managed.)
Why are they not making more of Big Pharma, oxycontin and fentanyl? (Why doesn’t Biden say he’d like to see the Sackler family left without a red cent, consigned to emptying bedpans in perpetuity?)
Why are they selling electric cars so hard? (The eventual clean technology for driving our cars is very much up in the air. Within five years, I predict, the current crop of battery-powered EVs will seem prehistoric.)
Again, as the DeSantis-Newsom debate made clear last week: Republicans have stronger generic arguments in 2024 than Democrats do. If it’s time to sound the alarm on Trump’s strongman tendencies, it’s also time to point out that the Dems are acting like weak sisters. Their coalition is fraying. Ruy Teixeira does a very good job of sounding that alarm here. Abortion may win any given state referendum, but it’s not enough to win a presidential election. There is a flaccid, way too cautious feel to the party right now. Dems are snoozing when they should have their fright wigs on.
Oh, and about that debate…
Let’s think of it in terms of what the candidate’s wanted to accomplish:
Nikki Haley was in a new role and had to demonstrate her credibility as the Republican establishment candidate. That meant she had to be less vulnerable to the inevitable attacks of her opponents. She accomplished that. She even managed to remain disciplined in the face of a wild-ass-crazy-foaming-at-the-mouth Ramaswamy:
“It’s not worth my time to respond to him,” Haley retorted after Ramaswamy held up a notebook saying “NIKKI = CORRUPT.”
And she gave a politic response—given her party’s proclivities—when asked about Trump’s viability:
“We have to stop the chaos, but you can’t defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos. And that’s what Donald Trump gives us. My approach is different — no drama, no vendettas, no whining.”
Her strength in New Hampshire was bolstered by Chris Christie’s lashing of Ramaswamy. (More below.) It wasn’t an exciting debate for her, but she did what she needed to do.
Ron DeSantis also did what he needed to do. It’s all about Iowa—and every one of his responses was carefully calibrated with corn-belt evangelicals in mind. As I noted last week, he’s getting better at this…but, as any body language expert can tell you, there’s something desperately uncomfortable about the guy.
Vivek Ramaswamy is all about ingratiating himself with Trump and his cult, probably in the hope of landing a big job in Trump II…or maybe even a spot on the ticket. He has descended into the deepest depths of looney-land, concluding with a machine-gun rat-ta-tat of conspiracy theories, including the notion that January 6 was “an inside job” and support for the great, white “replacement” theory. One wonders if he’s suffering from some sort of wasting brain disease.
Chris Christie is greasing the skids for his sayonara. His most effective moments worked to Haley’s advantage—destroying Ramaswamy, “the most obnoxious blowhard in America,” defending Haley, “a smart, accomplished woman,” and pushing DeSantis (but not Haley) on whether Trump was fit to be President. Christie’s agenda seems to be (1) promoting Haley as the most plausible alternative to Trump and (2) lobbying for a place in her administration.
On balance, there is still a chance that Haley will be able to thread the needle. She needs to beat Trump in New Hampshire and South Carolina. But she’s counting on a political party that no longer exists…plus exogenous factors like a meteor barrage, a Putin attempt to invade and retake Alaska, Trump falling into a health crisis or a very public, blubbering mental collapse (which, with Sean Hannity’s help, he’d probably be able to spin to his advantage).
News Nation was professional, except in its pre- and post-game shows. Chris Cuomo seems desperate—and his recent avowal that he was open to voting for Trump is just transparently phony. But the debate itself, moderated by three women, went well. If you didn’t remember how good Megyn Kelly could be—she landed the most direct shot on Trump in 2016—she offered a reminder last night. She can be a dodo at times (Santa Claus is white?) but I’m surprised she doesn’t have a host slot somewhere in cable television, maybe on CNN, which desperately needs the diversity.
Meanwhile Sanity Clause, unlike Santa, marches on—ruddy of hue, multifarious and multi-denominational—and you can send your denominations to the cause. Give the Gift of Sanity at a special rate for the next few weeks:
The media eats up Trump’s pronouncements because it drives up ratings. On one level they hate Trump but on another they see $$$ signs.
Your analysis of Trump's latest is scary brilliant. My fear of Trump is balanced by a sense of outrage toward my fellow Democrats who seem far more interested in fringe virtue signaling than in recognizing Trump's profound threat and their civic DUTY to unite behind broadly popular positions.