Doth Joe Biden protest too much by going to Israel this week? Perhaps, methinks. My first thought was: this is about domestic politics. He wants to strut that he’s fearless and spry, even if his arthritic knees suggest otherwise. My second thought was: Aside from showing solidarity with the Israeli people after a massive act of barbarity by Hamas, does he hope to accomplish anything? Is he hoping to tamp down Bibi? It seems unlikely that Israel will launch a massive ground assault on Gaza while Biden is in the building, as Lucian Truscott points out—or in the neighborhood, meeting with the leaders of Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.
As time has passed and passions cooled, a Gaza assault has come to seem foolhardy, a trap set by Hamas to lure Israel into a bloody and futile occupation. It is important to realize, as David French—a former JAG officer in Iraq—writes in an excellent New York Times column, the frustrations of this sort of warfare:
Israel is about to embark on a military task that will try its soul, against a hell that is not easily conquered. We can and must talk about tactics and law. They provide an indispensable minimal standard of conduct, but the ultimate course of the conflict will depend on the outcome of countless moral choices, and those choices will be the most difficult of all.
On the right, there are the usual “reduce Gaza to rubble” screechers; on the left, there are the selective peaceniks, who would attempt moral equivalence between acts of terrorism and a legitimate need for Israel to protect itself. In the center, there is very little sanity to be had, only muddle and complexity; war is an act of insanity that is sometimes necessary. But how much war and what sort?
There are two unavoidable issues in Gaza: the hostages and the continued viability of Hamas as the governing agent there. General Russ Howard, an expert on special operations, lays out the difficulty of a hostage rescue:
There are four generally accepted principles that are essential to a successful hostage rescue mission: intelligence, deception, surprise, and the operators’ skill. One out of these four—operators’ skill—does not guarantee success. There also will be no surprise, as Hamas will know the hostage rescuers are coming and they want them to come—that is why they took hostages in the first place! Deception also will be difficult. Misleading Hamas about the hostage rescue operations would be nearly impossible because, again, Hamas will know the rescuers are coming. And, unlike the rescuers, Hamas knows exactly where the hostages are. Finally, the intelligence is questionable…very questionable.
But, Howard continues, the United States has no choice but to attempt a rescue if it becomes evident the hostages are being mistreated:
If the American hostages are being subjected to anything like the massacre and mutilation Hamas inflicted on the Israeli citizenry this past weekend, it would—in this author’s view—demand an immediate US response.
Wow. I hadn’t considered the possibility of US special forces on the ground in Gaza, even for a “surgical” mission. (I put surgical in quotes because those sorts of things are, almost always, Hollywood fantasies—for every successful Osama bin Laden kill there are plenty of Desert Ones, the failed attempt to free the Iranian hostages in 1979.) It seems likely that the hostages are being held underground; any attempt to breech the booby-trapped tunnels and warrens would be disastrous. Hostage negotiations are a singularly depressing prospect, too: It took five years and the release of 1000 Palestinian felons for Israel to spring one IDF soldier, Gilad Shalit. It seems clear there will be no hostage deal that doesn’t compromise the other legitimate goal in Gaza: removing Hamas as the governing authority there.
And so Israel’s dilemma: Risk the lives of the hostages in return for smashing the Hamas leadership? To stand down now, to withdraw those tanks and 300,000 reservists on the Gaza Border, would be a terrible defeat, empowering the bad actors—not just Hamas, but Hizballah and Iran.
Unless…the ground assault is just a feint.
Jonathan V. Last in the Bulwark links to a piece in Long War Journal about the seizure of a massive Hamas arms cache by Israeli Special Ops. There may be two or three other caches like it, targeted by Israel. There are also reports that six or more Hamas leaders have been killed since the Israeli reaction began. Which raises the question: Is this the war? Does Israel think it can do irreparable damage to Hamas armaments and leadership under the radar? That would certainly be a proportionate reaction to the pogrom, although only a fool would predict success for a series of missions that only genius special operators could bring off…if they’re very, very lucky.
The impossibility of the hostage situation remains—and the improbability of dislodging Hamas entirely from Gaza. The status quo ante is unacceptable. But is there a way to remove Hamas from power short of creating an unthinkable pile of rubble? Diplomacy would be nice. You actually can, we have seen, negotiate with terrorists on rare occasions—especially if the terrorists are willing to foreswear terror and seek legitimacy. But there is no indication that Hamas is willing to do that; its unspeakable massacre of Israeli civilians indicates the exact opposite. There is every likelihood that this massive tragedy will roll on, toward a result that will beggar the imagination.
As David Petraeus said as he crossed the border into Iraq in 2003, “Tell me how this ends.”
I’ll continue to follow the Gaza situation closely, as well as American politics—ah yes, the tawdry spectacle of Jim Jordan—and I hope you’ll support my work.
With all due respect, you do yourself and the country poorly by cynically writing off Biden’s trip to Israel. That’s just phoning it in. Joe is by no means my first choice. I’m no partisan. In fact, I’ve never liked him since I met him in barber chair in Wilington DE IN 1972. I’ve been a relentless critic. But I see his trip as in the best tradition of American presidential leadership. Facing down Iran, Hezbollah, Putin and Hamas in one principled stand. Beats Herr Trumpler’s whining self-pity and ignorance by far.
When the US announced “two thousand US troops” mobilized for Israel, did you assume 2,000, basic infantry? What sort of troops did you imagine would be sent to a hostage situation? No, it isn’t Hollywood; yes, it will involve a special op scenario.