Ooh, a storm is threatening
My very life today
If I don't get some shelter
Ooh yeah, I'm gonna fade away
Fire or Flood? The eternal question. If my friend Steve Schmidt had any hair, it would be perpetually on fire…but his metaphor of the moment is flood: glacial ice sheets cracking, shattering the sea. You’ve gotta love Steve’s brilliant passion—and it is possible that we’re headed for the multi-candidate chaos that he predicts in 2024. History suggests otherwise; our system is biased toward two parties, two candidates. But chaos certainly feels apt right now. Desperation rules.
Often, it’s the small things that infuriate—like this brutish accosting of Senator Chris Coons by a left-wing “journalist” in the quiet car on Amtrak. Coons is not just one of my favorite politicians, he’s one of my favorite humans, a man who oozes decency. And in the quiet car, one of the last bastions of civility in the world of mass transportation. There seem to be constant intrusions on our privacy and decency these days, from barbarians of the right and left. Customers blowing up at flight attendants, sales clerks, waiter and waitresses. (At my eye doctor the other day, a woman speaking loudly into her cell phone…next to a sign saying, “No Cell Phone Use” in the waiting room—trivial but annoying.) Ahistorical idiot leftists making life difficult for Jewish students on college campuses; the all-too-easy return of Jew-scorn to the soigné salons of Europe. I spent five minutes watching Jesse Watters, comprehensively vicious, uniquely vile, on Fox the other night and wanted to slit my wrists. No, not mine. His. (Figuratively, of course.) He and Chris Coons’ harasser belong in the same holding pen; they are destroying the greatest experiment in kindness and decency the world has ever seen. I yearn for equanimity, not equity.
Rape, murder, it's just a shot away
It's just a shot away
Rape, murder, yeah, it's just a shot away
It's just a shot away
I’m reading a fabulous book right now, The Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan, and I’m wondering if our moment is world-historic in the same way the mutually assured destruction of the Byzantines and Persians, by war and bubonic plague, which took place in the seventh century. That left a power vacuum, quickly filled by the heretofore inconsequential Arabs and their sword-wielding prophet Mohammed. By the eighth century, Baghdad was the capital of the world. Are we looking at a transformation like that? Are we collapsing under the lazy weight of our own affluence? And what will come next?
Mmm, a flood is threatening
My very life today
Gimme, gimme shelter
Or I'm going to fade away
Are there “Arabs” lurking now? There are no contenders, except perhaps AI. Everyone is weak: Russia is a hopeless mess; China is having trouble reproducing itself; Iran is despised by its people. Each can amp the chaos; none can rule. There are no saviors, real or imagined, in American politics either, which is why I question Schmidt’s multi-party hypothesis. A third party candidacy requires Ross Perot splash. Donald Trump would have been a formidable one if the Republican Party hadn’t collapsed before him like Byzantium. Coal-Mine Manchin doesn’t have it. Bobby Kennedy has name charisma—the same as George W. Bush in the early 2000 polls, when he was mistaken for his father. But George W. was an attractive candidate in his own right; Bobby K. is a damaged, loony-tune of a conspiracy theorist. I cannot imagine a plurality of American parents voting against vaccines to protect their children.
On the Democratic side, I live in hope for a movement led by Barack Obama, Oprah, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar—you really should take a look at his substack—and the National Basketball League Players Association to tell Cornel West to sit back down. (West may flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Trump, losing the election for least-least Biden.) Then again, there’s the unspoken 11th Commandment for Democrats: They shalt not speak ill of a black person. Which is racist and condescending, but that’s the chronic myopia of the melanin-deprived left. They really can’t imagine how beneficial it would be for smart, sensitive blacks and whites to have a cathartic argument.
There are, however, a couple of signs that might hint at optimism for hopelessly romantic political junkies (like me).
One is the gaseous expansion of Donald Trump, for whom spontaneous combustion now seems a plausible outcome. (See Kareem above.) He is overplaying his ego, if such a thing is possible, going crazy before our eyes—to the point where even his own campaign has distanced itself from him. But, as with the Democrats, we need people like Rupert Murdoch, the Joint Chiefs and—why not?—John Roberts and the Supreme Court, plus a tidal wave of religious and business leaders to form a great united front and say: No, we can’t have this. The Orange Dude will wreck our lives, fortunes, sacred honor…and did I mention, our fortunes?
Another slight hope resides in the winnowing of the Republican field. Tim Scott is out. Ramaswamy only takes away Trump votes. Chris Christie has run an honorable campaign and is nothing if not rational, but he may soon see the handwriting on the wall. That leaves Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. DeSantis bet the wrong horses—anti-abortion, anti-Disney—and his skill set is limited. Haley has the potential to take advantage and you’d just love to see her alone on the debate stage with Donald Trump, wouldn’t you? Trump is a slave to his nicknames; he’s taken to calling Haley “birdbrain,” which just doesn’t work. If she looks a bit ornithological, she’s a predator, a hawk. The demolition of Donald would be a difficult trick—Haley wouldn’t want to offend too many Trumpers—but I’d bet she could do it.
Philip Bump, whose work I usually admire, deploys a battalion of charts to demonstrate that the race is over, that Trump has won the nomination. This sort of thing is a fool’s errand: presidential politics does not conform to charts or even, in most cases, to issues. It is about personalities. It is about who you want to have in your living room for the next four years. Bump sees a comparison of the 2016 Democratic nomination fight, with Haley or DeSantis playing the role of Bernie Sanders. Sorry, but no. Bernie was an extremist, with a very limited upside. DeSantis might be the same, but Haley is a smart, attractive, flexible moderate—she can beat Biden, more easily than Trump. Tim Scott’s funders seem to be moving her way. You listen to her talk about abortion and you can see her explaining any of the current horrific array of issues to the American people in their living rooms. She’s still a very long shot, but the cream is rising.
Meanwhile in Gaza…
David Ignatius and Tom Friedman continue their extraordinary work on the Middle East war. David and I have been in war zones together; he is now 73-years-old and reported recently from Gaza. Jeez. I put away my body armor a decade ago. He’s been way ahead on the possibility of a hostage swap. Here’s hoping.
Friedman, whose humanity—and humility—has been radiant in recent weeks, lays out a possible peace deal, based on an old one floated by the Trump administration and well-worth resurrecting now. The part I hadn’t considered is a different sort of land swap: Israel gets many of its settlements on the West Bank; Palestine—governed by the Palestinian Authority—gets an equal chunk of land contiguous to Gaza. The kibbutzim are ruined; I doubt many Jews are rushing to go back there. If I remember correctly, there was a pre-1948 plan that divided the region between Jews and Arabs on a north-south line, with Jews to the north. That probably would have been a mess, too, but…more of a mess than the current disaster? Question of the week: Which is more improbable, a Nikki Haley presidency or a Gaza peace deal?
And on a terribly sad note, the family of Vivian Silver, the peace activist who escorted Palestinian women with cancer to Israeli hospitals, announced that her body had been found, incinerated beyond recognition. There are no words.
And the holidays are coming. Give the gift of sanity:
1) A reminder that perhaps the most important election in American history -1860- featured FOUR candidates that earned electoral votes. Lincoln something like 40% of the popular vote. Can you imagine the panic in our modern media universe? Sometimes you have to simply face the situation you are given and trust in God, this may be one of those times.
2) Phillips could be a great gift to Biden as long as Biden (and his staff) take him seriously, debate him due order and demonstrate that he does, in fact, have the juice to save this country one more time.
3) Gimme Shelter remains the greatest song ever by the greatest band ever. The opening riff alone may be the greatest moment in rock. Love is just a kissing word indeed. Joe, keep the. Music metaphors coming.
We wouldn’t be headed to a multi-candidate chaos in 2024 if your friend Steve Schmidt didn’t feel compelled to shove milquetoast millionaires who think they should be president on to the American public!!
And no, you don’t gotta love Steve’s “brilliant passion.” Good grief. Pompous verbiage =/= passion. It = tedium and a lack of a good editor.