Israel Wins One

But it can lose if it retaliates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/14/israel-iran-attack-iron-dome/

I was in Jerusalem in 1991, in the King David Hotel, when the sirens went off. Israel was under attack by Iraq in the first Gulf War; the SCUDs were coming. I grabbed my gas mask and headed to a safe room, which was draped in thick sheets of opaque plastic. I sat on the floor, put on my mask…and nothing happened. The SCUDs didn’t have poison tips; they didn’t do much damage. Phew.

And then I began to look around the room. There were about 12 of us, many were elderly Jews who had fled their homes nearby for the (allegedly) safer precincts of the King David. Tears came to my eyes—elderly Jews, Holocaust survivors, wearing gas masks this time. The importance of Israel, always a back-of-the-mind assumption, became manifest in that moment. These Jews would not be gassed to death.

Then I looked more closely—and sitting directly across from me were the famous Neo-conservatives Norman Podhoretz and his wife, Midge Decter. The all-clear sounded; we took off our masks and began to talk. Podhoretz insisted that the Israelis would retaliate and bomb Baghdad. I disagreed. It would be stupid. It would antagonize Israel’s Arab neighbors who were allies in the George H.W. Bush-created coalition opposing Saddam. Anyway, the U.S. was bombing the hell out of Iraq at that moment and didn’t need any help from the Israelis. Norman thought the Israelis would always respond to aggression. We bet $5; I still have the check Midge sent me. Actually, it was a closer call than I thought: According to Steve Coll’s great book about Saddam The Achilles Trap, the Israelis really wanted to retaliate but we talked them out of it.

All of which came to mind this morning, as Israel faces a choice, to retaliate against Iran or not. Once again, I say: Don’t Do It. There are several consequences of the failed Iranian attack that the Israelis should consider:

1. Israel won this exchange. They did a surgical strike on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus and took out several ranking Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) generals—and demonstrated, after the mess in Gaza, that they could still bring off a precision strike. Then, with our help and the help of its Sunni neighbors, Israel fended off the Iranian response—and did it spectacularly, regaining some of the support it had lost in the world. So, as we say at Passover, dayenu: it is enough. Israel flicked an Iranian flea off its sleeve. If it doesn’t respond now, it only amplifies Iran’s humiliation—a regional victory that will be cheered by the Jordanians, Saudis, Egyptians and the gulfies. If Netanyahu decides to retaliate, it will be a further demonstration of his own weakness…and also, of his political desperation. Pocket the win, Bibi.

2. Iran lost this exchange. It was a military embarrassment, further evidence that Irans is inept and vulnerable, not nearly as fearsome as it pretends. A decade ago, in an interview, Netanyahu tried to convince me that Iran would launch against Israel as soon as it got a nuclear bomb. I laughed. I’d been to Tehran several times—and the Iranians still hadn’t gotten over being rocketed by the Iraqis, with poison gas shells, during the 1980s war. They were incredibly cautious, war averse. They still are. Remember their response after Donald Trump assassinated IRGC general Qasem Soleimani? There wasn’t much of one. The 300 drones and rockets were another underwhelming reaction to the deft Israeli strike in Damascus, an exercise in futility. Indeed, Iran has been having a rough Gaza—18 IRGC generals killed by the Israelis, their Houthi clients under attack by the U.S., Hamas crushed (if not eliminated), Hezbollah chastened. Iran is in a jittery moment. The Grand Ayatollah is ailing. The fight to succeed him will tell us a lot about who really controls that country—the mullahs or the military. I’m betting on an IRGC candidate, who will maintain a patina of religiosity but loosen the religious laws. Again, the overall message: Iraq is too cautious to be anything but an oblique regional threat.

3. The U.S. Gained Leverage. We provided an important assist in Israel’s victory—and also provided the coordination with Arab nations like Jordan, which helped knock down the Iranian rockets. We should make a public point of this. We stand with Israel when it’s attacked. We don’t stand with Israel when it overreacts, as it has in Gaza. We should take this opportunity to push a pan-Arab and western occupation force to control Gaza after the Israelis stand down. We should take the opportunity to make clear to Netanyahu that we will supply Israel with defensive weapons, like the systems that defeated the Iranian attack, but we will suspend all offensive weapons until he steps down and the IDF pulls out of Gaza. The can be a turning point in Israel’s misguided assault on Gaza (and a reminder that Israel does far better when it comes to targeted attacks, as in Damascus, than it does with undisciplined assaults, as in Gaza).

4. The Hamas leadership sequestered in Qatar should be worried.

5. I’m Wondering: What are all the pro-Palestinian American leftists are thinking this morning? Were they rooting for a successful attack against Israel? (I wouldn’t be surprised.) Were they rooting for Iran, a country that famously and viciously oppresses women and dissidents? The American pro-Hamas left is an infuriating drag on Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. I don’t mean people who think Netanyahu has gone too far in Gaza: I don’t mean people who favor a two-state solution (I do). I mean people like Rep, Jamaal Bowman who said that the reports of Israeli women raped on October 7 were merely “propaganda.” I’m talking about the romantically deluded anti-Zionist left.

This is a victory and an opportunity for Israel. In the past, Netanyahu has never missed an opportunity to make the worst of a bad situation. Norman P., I’d like to bet you another $5 that Israel plays it smart and doesn’t retaliate against Iran—but I fear I’d lose this time.