Oscar Delusions

And some other stuff...like the 2028 presidential race.

My “favorite” part of the Oscars last night was the In Memoriam section, which, I suppose says something about me and my age. I knew Rob Reiner—a mensch—and was in love with Diane Keaton, as so many were, and thought Robert Redford was just a great American guy. I was thrilled by Jessie Buckley’s expected victory; she’s been fabulous in diverse and demanding roles for a decade. I also loved the presence of Buddy Guy, Bobby Rush and Christone Kingfish Ingram on stage for the performance of the song from Sinners.

But, actually, that song—appropriately titled “I Lied to You”—gnawed at me, reminding me of the intellectual and spiritual emptiness of the two leading films and how infuriated I was when I saw them. Both are fine examples of filmaking craft. Both are also lazy left visions of the perils of this here world.

The “I Lied to You” scene in Sinners was ecstatic and wonderful; it came at a moment when I had high hopes for the movie, as a plausible drama of the Deep South black community in the 1930s—a community in flux, half of it moving north, even though the twins played by Michael B. Jordan were returning south from Chicago. That was an interesting twist, with lots of creative possibilities. I had no idea there would be Vampire Zombies involved. And that they would be white Hillbillies. And that they would, in effect, devour the black community. Are you sensing the metaphor here? If not, you’re insensate. It’s that same old white devil oppressors/black oppressed metaphor. It’s too true to dismiss, of course. But I’m ready for Hollywood to move past it, especially in directions that illuminate the complexity of life in black America. That’s why I so much enjoyed American Fiction a few years ago, a movie about a middle-class black writer who finds success only when he conforms to white stereotypes, as a pretend gangsta. I know conservative middle-class black people like that, who feel white people condescend to them—and I’m all too familiar with the white liberal fools who over-populate the book publishing industry.

This is not to say that there shouldn’t be vampire movies—although there are far too many for my taste—nor that there shouldn’t be movies about the barbaric American institution of slavery…and the barbaric century of race segregation that followed the Civil War. But I do think it’s time to rescue the race issue from cliche, even if those cliches give comfort to white liberals and the racist chunk of MAGA supporters alike.

One Battle After Another was even more disappointing, as I’ve been a huge fan of Paul Thomas Anderson since Boogie Nights. What a great filmmaker; what a wonderful sense of music and whimsy (the cast signing along with Amy Mann’s “Save Me” in Magnolia). In this case, the metaphors were closer to home—the ICE-like troops rounding up lefty radicals; the secret society of right-wing oligarchs; the sex-demented, stick-up-his-ass brutality of the military leader, subtly named Stephen J. Lockjaw (and played by Sean Penn). I mean, that sort of caricature was pretty stale when Stanley Kubrick gave us General Jack D. Ripper in Dr. Strangelove. Now, it’s a cliche that’s 50 years out of date. Such people as Lockjaw do exist, but the military is a far different institution than it was when we were blundering about in Vietnam. I thought of all the smart young officers and enlisted people I’ve met in the past 25 years—so many of them volunteered after 9/11—and was infuriated on their behalf, their courage and discipline and sense of service misapprehended by civilians, even if the casual, bloody stupidity of our leaders has sent them into misguided wars. I expected more from Paul Thomas Anderson than anachronistic left-wing metaphors. Maybe next time. But I yearn for movies that are not so obvious in their self-righteous dilettante bias. Not so obvious period.

Government by NickName

It occurs to me that Donald Trump hires military leaders by nickname. There was Jim “Mad Dog” Mattis, who was more a monkish bibliophile than a Lockjaw martinet. And now, we have Dan “Raisin’” Cain, who seems a sober officer; he expressed reluctance about the war in Iran (as our military leaders have privately done for the past 25 years). His performances next to Hegseth at press conferences have been sober and exemplary. No macho hoo-hah. War really does suck.

A 2028 Prediction for the Democrats

Of course, it’s too early to say anything serious about the 2028 presidential campaign. But people are doing it. And so I will, too…but in reverse. I firmly predict that the Democratic nominee will not be anyone listed near the top of the current polling. Kamala Harris? She proved herself a too-smiley, weakling coward of a candidate in 2026. (At this stage, Joe Lieberman was ahead for the nomination in 2004. Good luck Kam.) Also, Gavin Newsom has the slicked, slicker look of a Trump appointee…and the tap-dancing record to back it up. Did you see those signs for $8 gasoline in California? And the money-flight inducement of a wealth tax (you too, Mamdani)? You really want to run on that, Gov? And calling Israel an apartheid state? Ok, too many Palestinians are badly mistreated but there are serious, reasonable pathways to Palestinian success in Israel too. This is a greasy cave to the growing pro-Pal left. Can’t the Dems find a candidate who is not a Bibiphile but also cognizant of Israel’s reality as a democracy and willing to apply pressure for a two-state future?

Farther down the list, there is Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who just caved to my favorite Democratic interest group, the teachers union. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is supposed to be the great moderate hope for Democrats in 2028, but on Friday he revealed himself as a captive of the left’s most destructive interest group. He vetoed a bill to opt his state into the federal tax-credit scholarship program, taking dictation from the teachers union.

Now, I’m not big on that federal tax-credit plan. It opens the door to too much stupid curriculum. But I am a big fan of charter schools. I’d love to see a Democratic candidate flout the teachers on that, as Barack Obama did. It really is about time.

But who do you like, Joe? Sad to say, my favorite candidates are gay or women—categories that Democratic “establishment” types say can’t win. At the top of my list is Pete Buttigieg, who is solid, way smart, courageous (he’ll do Fox and he did Afghanistan in the U.S. Army) and a strong family man. But he’s gay! That may prove an impediment—I mean, being Jewish is, too—but if anyone can overcome this sad prejudice, I suspect it’ll be Pete. My other favorite candidate who “can’t” win is Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin. I love the way she talks—and boy, do she have a mouth on her. She is one Democrat who understands that the party’s deficiency in 2024 was in the perception of strength; Kamala was the apotheosis of weak. She speaks American, not political consultese.

In fact, I really like a bunch of other women, Governors Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger; former governor Gina Raimondo…Losers all, you say? Perhaps, but I’d like to see a tough woman candidate who, unlike Harris and Hillary, is not obeisant to the more toxic Democratic interest groups.

A Final Category includes those who are up for election this year and may prove great campaigners. Keep your eyes on Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Wes Moore of Maryland…and also Jason Crow of Colorado, Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly of Arizona.

I could throw out some other names. I remember 50 years ago, R.W.Apple of the New York Times decided to focus on a young newcomer with no real chance—he was a Southern governor—who turned out to be Jimmy Carter. It is difficult to remember now, and somewhat hard to believe, but Carter was the best performer in the field in 1976…and, in presidential politics, as with the Oscars, best performers often win.