Impatience
Does Trump Walk Away and Declare Victory in Cuba?
The New York Times today:
Inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war. But they have been careful not to express that directly to the president, who has repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete success.
There is a growing sense in the media, over the past few days, that the war in Iran is not going well, that Iran has been “clever” in its response, that Trump will walk away, Mission Incompleted. I dunno. And neither do you.
The situation reminds me of a friend, a colleague, who embarrassed himself in 1999 by saying on TV that NATO’s bombing campaign against Serbia had been a failure in the Kosovo war…only to have Serbia capitulate the very next day. I had held fire on any prediction then, just as I am now. Serbia was easy-peasy compared to Iran (although it did provide limited proof that an air campaign can win a small war). But I had no idea what was going on then. And even less of an idea now.
The Iranian response has not been a surprise. It has doubled down on the Khamenei Ayatollahship, violating religious practice—nepo-babies ordinarily need not apply to the Assembly of Experts—but sending a strong international signal of stubbornness. The same old signal, which reflects the views of most Iranians: Don’t tread on us, Great or Little Satan. We’re well aware of the embarrassments of recent history. During World War II we sided with the good guys…and got invaded twice, more or less, by them. (Why? You ask. Oil, I answer.) Stand on any street corner in Tehran and ask what happened in 1953 and you will be told—after 45 years of educational indoctrination—The CIA overthrew our government and kept the Shah in power. Iranians may hate the regime, but they are relatively well-educated and hate the idea of being dominated by us even more.
And so, I’ve been reading with trepidation the predictions of how this ends, some written by people I admire. If you put a gun to my head, I might speculate—which, be assured, I’m not doing now—that it all depends on Cuba. Now there’s a government overripe for collapse…with a national Mambo Mardi Gras to ensue, and an explosion of economic activity, led by Cuban-Americans who, I am told, have already bought up the franchising rights for luxury hotels and, sadly, I expect, new car dealerships and other service industry baubles. Talk about a feel good story! Cuba’s about the only thing that could drive Iran off the front pages, a result that may be devoutly wished for by Donald Trump before long.
That makes sense. ADHD-fueled sociopathy doesn’t make for long wars. Declare victory and go home. But there’s a problem with that. There will probably be blowback, a continuing Iranian response—occasional drones, terrorist activities conducted by sleeper cells, perhaps a barracks blown up as in Beirut in 1983 and the clogging of the Strait of Hormuz. The latter is a loose end that must tied. The price of oil is one thing Trump really cares about. Bret Stephens suggested invading and taking the Kharg Island refining center in the Times today. Something like that may be necessary. Trouble is, it would require boots on the ground, as would policing the Iranian side of the strait itself. Boots on the ground is a loose end virtually impossible to tie, especially in the Middle East. Just ask the Israelis about Southern Lebanon, which is right next door.
As for the possibility that the Ayatollah will simply declare a Serbia and capitulate, just remember this: the Revolutionary Guards control an estimated 30% of the Iranian economy. Again, we’re talking about oil…but also a good chunk of the service industry, like cell phone contracts and internet service. It’s possible that this will be resolved the way state ownership was when the Soviet Union collapsed: the Sub-Deputy Commissar for Malt Beverages had the inside track on the Heineken franchise. Or not.
I can speculate with any old regional “expert” or journalist fool. It is our version of twiddling our thumbs. But I suspect that Iran will be that rare instance where life doesn’t imitate reality TV for Trump; the plot is too complicated for the writers’room. In the meantime, I mourn the loss and maiming of life, ours and theirs. In fact, when I see the bomb damage in Tehran, I think of an educated Iranian woman whom I interviewed just after the 9/11 attacks.
“What was your first thought when you heard of the attacks?” I asked.
“I hoped Woody Allen was still alive.” She said…
At which point, he husband interjected, “I hoped we didn’t do it.”
Well, we have done this…and no one has any idea yet of what “this” is or will turn out to be.
When you peel back the Trump Derangement Syndrome and the irrational hate of everything Trump, Joe provides one thread of truth here about Iran: “But I suspect that … the plot is too complicated for the writers’ room.” Joe, by referencing the disgraced NYTimes with yet another report based upon unnamed sources (or as we know from experience, nonexistent), you demonstrate how out of touch you are. These military exercises have been an overwhelming success, yet the liars in the lamestream media try to spin everything as negative. As Mark Penn posts:
“The (lamestream media) headlines abound:
* Iran Regime doing well, in control
* Trump under pressure to end war
* Khomeini son just as tough as Father
* US responsible for missile on school
One headline after another essentially featuring Iranian propaganda as the news. Where are the headlines:
* 50 Iranian ships sunk
* Iranian military assets destroyed
* Leadership tries to put on good showing despite internal chaos
* Khomeini appointment creates hereditary theocracy
* War plan progress unprecedented
The press is a drumbeat of negativity favoring the Iran regime. It’s puzzling at this point how any success is buried.
The reality is likely the regime is being pummeled on all sides and has no ability to provide for its people. Maybe it can put on a good show for another week or two but its leadership is under immense pressure. But that’s not what the American public is getting from mainstream media.”
Joe, I pity you that these “are people I [you] admire”.
Joe, there is something that “reflects the views of most Iranians”; that is the prayed for end of the current authoritarian, brutally oppressive, apocalyptic, mullah regime that is persecuting the Iranian people. This repressive regime is supported by only 15% of the population, yet it has forced a ruthless, authoritarian, tyranny on the rest of the 90 million Iranian population (mostly Persians and Kurds) by inflicting despicable, brutal, inhuman barbarity. It is well reported that only a month ago the IRG murdered ~32,000 peaceful protestors against their regime, including going into hospitals and shooting the wounded protesters and the medical staff who tried to protect them. Please provide a link to any NYTimes article reporting that news.
Where is the reporting that:
1. The US and Israel military mission coordination is at a level between nations that has never been achieved before, unprecedented between any two military powers in history?
2. That this military exercise has destroyed almost all of Iran’s nuclear weapon capability, most of its ballistic missile and drone capability and its navy including their production capacity to rebuild. The remaining war effort is merely mopping up what is left of the IRG's arsenal.
3. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have sent messages to the Iranian people that their country is not the target of this military exercise, that the apocalyptic regime that oppresses their freedoms is the target.
4. That the IRG has shut down the state television system, but Elon Musk has provided Starlink phones to Iranian citizens so that they can keep informed with the outside world (and also provide intelligence).
5. That neighboring Arab countries have unprecedently joined forces with the US and Israel against the IRG, further demonstrating the Noble Peace Prize worthy success of President Trump’s Abraham accords.
Joe, since you and the rest of the lamestream media aren’t capable of reporting the news, I believe you should pay me the $9.00 subscription to your stack to educate you.
Here are some more highlights from this story:
A. 85% of Iranian citizens detest living under the cruel oppression of the current Mullah regime and drastically want regime change, but are understandably fearful of the lethal consequences if they revolt against this regime.
B. Both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have clearly messaged to the Iranian people that the US and Israel are not going to initiate regime change (like the deep-state CIA did in Iran in 1953 that sowed this mess). Both Trump and Netanyahu have encouraged Iranian citizens to seize the moment because another may not happen in a generation.
C. There have been some accidents, limited as they were, but among them were:
i. The US accidentally bombing a girl’s school in Tehran (as tragic as that is, we know the Iranian regime greatly exaggerated the number of casualties). Of course, the lamestream media never reports that the US only bombs military targets, while the IRG mostly bombs civilian targets in Israel and their neighboring Arab states.
ii. On Saturday night, Israel bombed ~90 fuel depots in Iran going against the previous dictates of President Trump, who is now incensed at the Israelis Military Command. Not only did this take a card out of Trump's hand while looking to negotiate a US partnership for oil and gas production, like he negotiated in Venezuela, but it also sent a false message to Iranians that this action was over Iran the country, rather than against the oppressive Mullah regime (which is not the US objective).
D. And my opinion is that this conflict is the posterchild case for 2nd amendment rights for citizens to own and bear arms. If Iranian citizens had these rights, it is unlikely they would still be in this predicament. Joe, if you want to try to justify your “right to form a “militia”” misunderstanding of the 2nd amendment as the only legitimate reason to bear arms, bring it on. I am an excellent shot, including with ideological discourse, as I'm sure you've discovered by now.
E. Iran has nothing to do with Cuba. The Trump administration is strangling Cuba through sanctions and embargos. But, unlike Iran and Russia and their oil and natural gas and weapons trade with China, Cuba isn’t strategic, other than being a thorn in the side of the US because of Cuba's geographic proximity. Keep your eye on the ball Joe.
Finally, concerning your comment that “no one has any idea yet of what “this” is or will turn out to be.”; I'm sorry that this is so complicated for you to understand but we can at least identify the possible outcomes:
I. This exercise inflicts so much damage there is a possible revolt of the Iranian people against this regime.
II. Someone emerges, like in Venezuela, who the US can work with. Personally, I think there must be a contingent of political prisoners who are locked within the IRG’s gulags who are known to Israelis intelligence with whom the US can partner. Thinking outside of the box, for which President Trump is a master, perhaps it’s time for a US orchestrated jailbreak supplied with arms to overthrow the IRG.
III. The Mullah’s retain iron handed / brutal control but there is so much damage to their war arsenal that the whole country will continue to stew as the non-IRG Iranian citizens languish in brutal suppression until and if they decide to act, an action that will be horribly bloody.
I pray for the Iranians that they choose freedom now. How do we supply them with arms? Perhaps we should consult B. Hussein Obama, he has already disastrously armed cartels with Operation Fast and Furious.
That’s all you get for free Joe. Do you want to setup an account for a monthly subscription?
Smart. Informed.