Labor Day Reset

The Song Remains The Same

It’s also true that the former president is veering all over the place — as unstable, deranged, belligerent and despicable as ever — but obviously declining in mental acuity and beginning to bore (and now betray) even his own base.

—Andrew Sullivan

And yet, the song remains the same. Here we are, at Labor Day, and the race is a toss-up, which makes me want to toss-up. Donald Trump is a traitor, as the ever-sane Colbert King of the WaPo reminds us: he tried to overthrow the government of the United States in 2021—not merely by egging on his mob but, more important, by promoting the fake electors scheme, a criminal effort to steal the election. In several states, the perpetrators of this assault on democracy have already been brought to justice. Trump should be brought to justice, too, for committing the very worst crime in the history of the American presidency. There can be no massaging this. There are no on-the-other-hands. The policies he pursued as President—some good (warp-speed vaccine) and others remarkably bad (tax cuts for the wealthy, cosying up to dictators, separating parents and children at the border)—are irrelevant here. Trump is a casual, careless traitor; there was never any evidence of election fraud. None. His cult refuses to acknowledge that stark reality, but we must remind ourselves of that near-disaster continuously, as long as he blots our national life. The fact that he is a wall-to-wall creep, desecrating Arlington Cemetery and posting a vile “blowjob” joke about Kamala Harris—in the past week alone—is something of a distraction from the main reason why he should never be allowed to enter the White House again: Donald Trump tried to steal the 2020 election. He tried to end our democracy. He is a traitor.

And yet, the song remains the same. The polls have moved a bit since Kamala Harris replaced the sad, near-catatonic Joe Biden. Democrats have come home, as they might have done even if Biden had remained the candidate. That has brought the race back to even. But even is not enough for a Democratic victory. The Electoral College has thwarted the popular vote in recent elections. The overwhelming blue vote from California and New York is neutered by vast, underpopulated tracts like Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas, although Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics makes a good argument that the old formulas may not work this year:

Question 3: Has Trump’s Electoral College advantage receded? A funny thing happened in 2022: House Republicans made substantial gains in the popular vote, but it didn’t translate into accompanying gains in seats. Why?

That’s a good question that lacks a satisfactory answer. One explanation, though, is that Republicans are running into a bit of the same problem that Democrats had in earlier years. Republicans now run up margins in rural areas comparable to those achieved by Democrats in inner cities. This means that Republicans are possibly beginning to suffer from some of the same problems of inefficient vote distribution that Democrats have had in recent years.

We don’t know for sure if this will continue into 2024, but if Trump continues to overperform in rural areas while hemorrhaging votes in the suburbs, his Electoral College edge could quickly evaporate.

Speculation, of course—but smart speculation. And, increasingly, it seems to me the most important unknowable factor is this: Who will decide not to vote? For most of the year, I thought the preponderance of non-voters would be Democrats tired of—or uninspired by—Joe Biden. Now, there’s the possibility that some Republicans who are appalled by Trump’s anti-pro-anti-abortion antics might stay home. There may some “childless cat ladies” offended by J.D. Vance’s disingenuous, gratuitous crap-slinging. There don’t have to be many of the above to tip the election…or, on the other side, many pro-Hamas Michigan voters who stay home, or Fools For Cornel West. Because…

Against all odds, the song remains the same. The key number to watch is the ceiling on Donald Trump’s support among voters. My podcast partner John Ellis offers a handy gauge. If Trump’s support is…

• 49%, Trump wins.

• 48% Trump probably wins

• 47% You have a tossup similar to 2020, when Biden carved a narrow 51-47% victory.

• 46% or lower, Trump loses

Unless, Sean Trende is right and the popular vote is mitigated by vast hordes of rural voters taking a firm stand against democracy. Depending on the last electorate is the same as trying to fight the last battle. We simply don’t know who’ll show up this year.

There are still events that may clarify the race. The September 10 debate is certainly one. I suspect that a good part of Trump’s escalating nuttery is sheer terror that the Prosecutor is going to whip his butt. Her strategy of ignoring Donald’s taunts—”next question”—is in the service of this. She’s sending the message: You can’t get under my skin. But I can make you crazy. Anything can happen in a debate, of course—but you can’t change who you essentially are. Donald Trump is unintelligent, self-absorbed to the point of delusion and not very stand-up clever. His bombast may have intimidated Hillary Clinton, but it hasn’t worked in debates since. The open question remains: Who is Kamala Harris? What are those values that, she claimed, haven’t changed? How will she answer the tough questions, especially about social issues, that will inevitably come? How will she handle the unexpected? How fast on her feet is she?Her danger comes not from Trump, who is predictable, but from the moderators.

Other things will surely happen between now and November 5. The Middle East could explode. There could be a terrorist attack, or a particularly awful police killing. The stock market has a rocky history in the month of October. But the likelihood is that the numbers won’t change all that much, even if Harris wipes the floor with Trump in the debate.

And so, the song will remain the same—until the vote-counting starts, and it may remain the same, disastrously, after that.